What Went Wrong

In 1936, the Literary Digest infamously predicted a landslide win for Alf Landon over FDR. In 1948, Gallup even more infamously had Dewey decisively besting Truman. And now, in 2016, yet another reckoning: “Clinton Trumps Trump” has yielded to “Trump Triumphs.” No doubt it would be easy to lump these failures together. However, it would also be a mistake. Landon’s hopes and Dewey’s aspirations ultimately lost out to fundamental errors in polling methodology. »

Author image Chris Meserole

Where Do We Go From Here?

There was a great panel at Brookings this week on counter-terrorism and the future of global jihadism, hosted by Will McCants and featuring Ambassador Kaidanow, Dan Byman, and Bruce Riedel. (If you missed it, the audio is here.) Now that I have a minute, I thought I’d offer up a few quick thoughts in response: We’re still in need of new ways to evaluate foreign policy success. At one point there was a conversation about whether our foreign policy has made us safer since September 2001. »

Author image Chris Meserole